The Early Military History of the Second Indochina War and the Moyar Thesis

The early military history of the Second Indochina War—the fighting before the end of 1963—has been somewhat neglected by Western historians. This article examines it with reference to the thesis put forward by Mark Moyar that, by mid-1962, the South Vietnamese government was implementing a successful counterinsurgency program and that, until President Ngo Dinh Diem’s overthrow and assassination at the beginning of November 1963, was winning its war with the Communists. It is here argued that, for several carefully considered reasons, the fortunes of war had turned sharply in the Communists’ favor months before Diem’s demise.