Soviet Planning For War, 1936–1941: The ’Preventive Attack’ Thesis in Historical Context

This article traces the development of the Soviet political-military leadership’s response to perceived threats during the years immediately preceding the German invasion of June 1941. Drawing heavily from post-Soviet documents as well as contemporary memoirs, it focuses on Soviet mobilization plans from 1938 to 1941, showing the gradual evolution from the relatively indecisive March 1939 variation to the final May 1941 plan, which called for a preemptive attack against German concentrations along the western frontier. The article offers reasons for the Soviet failure to implement the 1941 preemptive strike plan and concludes with a broad overview of the evolution of Soviet planning for war.